I have argued here that SIP's STIR/SHAKEN is misguided and is probably solving the wrong problem, and that the "right" problem is in fact the sip:mike@mtcc.com problem. But what if we are both wrong? The most obvious question is whether there is going to be anything resembling the PSTN at all in the future. Phones are increasingly not phones at all, but instead devices to access internet services. While email is probably bumping along at the same clip or growing, actually talking on a telephone is distinctly in decline especially among the youngins. They certainly use SMS texting, but there are any number of wholesale replacements for SMS-like texting. Given the lack of end-to-end privacy of SMS, apps like Whatsapp fill in that void and is very popular from everything I've heard. Given the heavily regulated PSTN and the tension with law enforcement, it seems highly unlikely that SMS will ever provide that sort of privacy.
So the obvious question here is whether in, oh say, 10 years legacy telephony (regardless of how it's transported) will be very important. My bet is that as a means of communication the answer is "no". Sure, old geezers like moi will continue to use the old fangled things, but for younger generations the decline will surely accelerate. Lest anybody think that I'm saying that in 10 years time that the PSTN will evaporate, I'm definitely not saying that. But my suspicion is that its raison d'etre will largely be overtaken by new technologies. Given that telephony is almost 150 years old there are definitely a lot of legacy things baked into everyday life that will still be needed for decades to come. But those needs are increasingly around the edges, and they are slowly but surely getting internet enabled analogs.
What that implies to me is that more and more people are going to just turn the telephony functionality off, or at least find ways to not have it annoy you. Even in my geezerhood, I am sorely tempted to do exactly that given the spam problem. All of this puts the telephants into an interesting situation: having to provide an expensive and heavily regulated service that is in free fall. Long gone are the days when telephony was a profit center. Mobile providers haven't charged for telephony in ages, and landlines are becoming jokes to outwit clueless teenagers. One thing we can be sure of though: if something ain't a profit center but you can't get rid of it, you put exactly as little investment into it as possible.
The other thing that has been happening since I wrote the original post is the Covid-19 pandemic. They say these kinds of things have a way of really reshaping society. It was certainly true of the previous pandemic, especially for gay people. HIV and the corrupt and incompetent response to it shaped a generation of activists who had no other choice but to take things into their own hands to affect change. It also forced several generations worth of tireless work on anti-retrovirals and pushed the envelope of biology in general. We are surely reaping the rewards of all of that work, including the possibility that HIV drugs like Lopinavir may be helpful for Covid-19 too.
Since Covid-19 affects everybody, it is likely that the change is going to be enormous. Working at home as well as using things like Zoom for social interaction has become a major change in daily life. It is highly likely that this petri dish we've been thrown in to is going to force us to especially look at why we need to go into the office every day of every week. I could be wrong, but telephony is probably not the go-to answer for either telework or social interaction. This further contributes to its downward spiral and relevance.
While it seems to be a pretty safe bet to say that telephony qua telephony is in decline, it's still an open question in my mind whether that also applies to SIP qua SIP. The work on G.164 identities seems to me to be a lot of work for little long term gain. But I really don't know whether SIP is used much outside of telephony. Most of the new communication services don't seem to have any inter-provider needs, so SIP isn't a requirement. And if you take the inter-provider problem off the table, the spam problem is reduced to the more tractable intra-provider problem.
So is there actually a DKIM-like analog problem in SIP beyond telephony? I think that it's an open question. Centralization has become the watchword for the last several decades. On the other hand, centralization is starting to create backlash as nations and governments watch it wearily. A Bell-like breakup of, say, Facebook could happen. Or nations might take back messaging and video services and we'll need inter-provider connectivity after all. Who knows? I sure don't.
As always, one engineer, three opinions.
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